Glossary

Short definitions aligned with the live pipeline. For the full CLV methodology, see How it works → CLV.

A-tier / B-tier

A-tier signals pass the full execution bar for actionable alerts (Discord + email). B-tier is watchlist-only: same underlying model, but capped or downgraded by design (e.g. liquidity, anti-filters, model-risk). B-tier is for monitoring, not the same conviction as A-tier.

Beat the closing line

For our Kalshi NO (under) totals strategy: positive CLV — the Kalshi NO price at our post-game snapshot was higher than the NO target price stored at detection. That is line quality on the Kalshi contract, not sportsbook CLV.

CLV (closing line value)

CLV = NO_price_at_close_snapshot − NO_targetPrice_at_signal (contract scale 0–1; we display cents). Captured only after a post-start delay so the Kalshi print reflects settlement, not in-game noise. Not realized profit: maker fees and fill quality are separate.

Consensus μ (mu)

Expected total runs (MLB) or points (NBA) from the sharp-book consensus at signal detection, after matching the Kalshi event. Shown in advanced details as "Consensus μ".

Edge (badge / σ=1.3)

Model-implied edge at detection, fee-aware in the engine (e.g. edgeS13). This is not the same number as post-game CLV: edge is "model vs entry"; CLV is "entry vs Kalshi close."

Games settled (deduped)

Public and Performance hero stats use A-tier signals only, one row per Kalshi event after dedupe, with non-null CLV. The count is games, not raw signal rows.

Maker limit price

Suggested posted limit on Kalshi (typically one tick inside the mid). Fills are not guaranteed at this price; liquidity and queue position matter.

Model probability

Fair P(NO) from the scenario ladder (e.g. σ=1.3) at detection, on the same side as the signal. Shown on cards as "Model" next to entry.

Target price

Kalshi NO price used as the reference entry for the signal (stored as targetPrice). CLV compares this to the NO price at close.

← How it works · Home